Cox Communications Inc. is considered BigBand's marquee CMTS customer in the United States, but estimates show BigBand owns less than 10 percent of the overall market. Of recent note, Arris has claimed it can own 33 percent of the CMTS pie by 2010, from about one-fourth today, as MSOs roll out Docsis 3.0. (See Arris Angles for More Market Share .)

    Wahlman estimates that roughly 10 percent of BigBand sales are from its CMTS division, with the balance of revenues coming from its video-related businesses, which include gear and software for switched digital video (SDV).

    Wahlman,who cut his 12-month price target on BigBand shares to $11 from $14, said he "would not be surprised if the eventual outcome would be for [BigBand] to effectively mothball its CMTS business by reducing its investment in product development to a point which eventually could approach zero."

    That would mark a major turn of events, as BigBand has been focused on next-generation CMTS projects like Docsis 3.0 and a more flexible modular CMTS design that allows cable operators to scale upstream and downstream capacity independently. BigBand has seen some early adoption of its M-CMTS implementations overseas. (See M-CMTS: Turning Japanese and BigBand Goes Dutch With M-CMTS.)

    Another possibility: BigBand could repurpose its CMTS technology and label it as an IPTV product, rather than one dedicated to high-speed data-over-cable, Wahlman pointed out.

    That could come into play if cable operators develop and deploy video-over-Docsis systems that use a new breed of downstream-heavy edge QAMs, another product in BigBand's arsenal.

    Harmoni cInc.(Nasdaq:HLIT - message board) was recognized for just such an edge QAM demo earlier this month at the CableLabs Summer Conference in Keystone, Colo. There, Harmonic's video-over-Docsis implementation was voted "best new idea mostly likely to succeed" at the event's Innovation Showcase. (See Harmonic's Bright Idea .)