In a sense,Vyyo's bandwidth overlay approach competes with other tactics MSOs can tap to get more out of their available bandwidth, including switched digital video, node splits, and a move to MPEG-4 compression. Vyyo also competes with Scientific Atlanta , C-COR Corp. (Nasdaq: CCBL - message board), and other vendors that offer gear that expands spectrum to 1 GHz.
Operators might also consider a "mid-split," a technique that expands upstream capacity by taking some away from the downstream. But that tactic remains merely an "intellectual discussion," according to Davis.
While there remains a significant timeframe gap between product orders and when Vyyo can recognize those revenues -- currently about three to six months -- the company did offer some detail on revenue expectations on a per-node basis for the UltraBand overlay.
When the necessary active and passive elements are factored in, Davis tags the revenue opportunity at $48,750 per node. He said the average selling price for each passive is $35, while active components sell for about $850 each. He also estimated there are 140,000 nodes in the U.S. alone.
"That's a $6.825 billion opportunity in the Unites States," ThinkEquity Partners analyst Anton Wahlman explained in a research note distributed Monday. "Revenue recognition at Cox has just started, however, and it is minimal and could lag several quarters, in our opinion."
Although there are indications that some large operators are looking to adopt Vyyo's technology, with Vyyo possibly seeing a significant revenue ramp in 2008 and beyond, revenue recognition rules contributed to Wahlman's decision to reduce more optimistic 2007 and 2008 revenue estimates from $24 million and $85 million, respectively, to $13 million and $61 million.
However, Wahlman maintained his 12-month price target of $10. Vyyo shares were trading at $5.99 each, down 59 cents or 8.97 percent, in early afternoon trading Monday.